Euro Jumps Back, AUD/JPY Records New 2013 High

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The euro returned to 1.3100 levels after ECB President Mario Draghi reported no change in interest rates at 0.75 per cent, a positive outlook later this year for the Eurozone. He said that while the short-term outlook for the region remained weak, a gradual recovery is seen for the second half of 2013.

Projection of the Eurozone GDP is expected to be somewhere between -0.1 per cent and -0.9 per cent this year, before remaining flat or rising to 2 percent by 2014. Inflation figures, meanwhile, are seen to rise by 1.2 to 2 per cent 2 this year, and then by 0.6 to 2 per cent by next year.

These recent developments could create risk appetite for the EUR/USD, that is, until figures from the US Nonfarm Payrolls report comes out tomorrow. If the February 2013 numbers meet the expected 170,000, then a further rally by the pair might continue.

Meanwhile on the Australian front, the AUD/JPY cross pair neared the 98 mark, mainly due to the Yen’s poor performance as of late. Over the past 2 days, the Yen once again fell as the weakest currencies among the majors.

Both Japan and Australia, however, were hurt by the recent trade data from China, which saw a $15.3 billion increase, contrary to initial expectations of $-7.75 billion. This means that as Chinese exports grew, its imports fell, severely affecting countries like Japan and Australia, which rely heavily on trade with China.

Thus, despite current rallies in the AUD/JPY front, the opposite is true for the AUD/USD, which fell by 0.27 per cent to 1.0241 during today’s Asian trading session. New Zealand, another large exporter to China, fell by 0.33 per cent to 0.8258 in the NZD/USD pair following Chinese trade figures.

By FX Strategy Team, Published on 8th of March 2013
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