FX News – August 2: USD Gains Strength Ahead of NFP Data

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The greenback gained strength against the euro today as traders await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment data (12:30PM GMT). Already traders are upbeat on their outlook of the US economic figures, as they expect June's Unemployment Rate to drop from 7.6% to 7.5%, while the NFP is expected to be at 184K. This anticipation primarily drove the EUR/USD pair to a low of 1.3026 early in the Asian trading session. The pair has somehow recovered over the past few hours and is currently trading at 1.3216.

Should the US continue to produce positive economic data as it has over the recent weeks, analysts expect the Federal Reserve to begin the QE tapering in September.

Initial resistance for the EUR/USD is at 1.3259, followed by 1.3293. Meanwhile, initial support is at 1.3142, followed by 1.3110.

As for the AUD/USD, the pair has continued its weeklong slide, dropping to as low as 0.8888 early in the Asian session.

Earlier today, Australian Treasurer Chris Bower released a statement that showed a projected increase in the 2013/2014 budget deficit from May's AUD18 billion to AUD30.1 billion. In addition, economic growth for the same period was adjusted from May's 2.75% to 2.5%. Unemployment rate projection for 2013/2014 was also revised from just 5.75% in May to 6.25%.

There is a possibility that the aussie's situation may turn from bad to worse if positive economic data comes from the US later today, which would result to an even stronger greenback. Next week, traders await the interest rate decision from the RBA, wherein a 25bps cut is expected. This could drive the aussie further if this happens.

The AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.8908, with initial resistance seen at 0.8961, followed by 0.8983. Meanwhile, initial support is at 0.8872, followed by 0.8850.

By FX Strategy Team, Published on 2nd of August 2013
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