FX News – Feb 6 2014: Volatility in EUR/USD Ahead of ECB Announcement, US NFP

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Yesterday was a fairly volatile day for the EUR/USD pair as it traded from lows of 1.3500 to highs at the 1.3550 area. The pair peaked at 1.3555 late in the European session, but was quickly dragged down after the release of the US ADP Employment Change in January. It came out lower than expected at 175K (180K was expected) and lower than the previous 227K.

The volatility is expected to continue until the end of this week as the market awaits the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision later today (6 Feb, 12:45PM, GMT), and the US Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow (7 Feb, 1:30PM, GMT).

As for the interest rate decision, the ECB is largely expected to maintain rates at 0.25%, although others are hoping for a rate cut that would bring it to just 0.1%.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.3536, with initial resistance seen at 1.3528, followed by 1.3561. Meanwhile, initial support is at 1.3481, followed by 1.3447.

Aside from the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) will also announce its interest rate decision today (6 Feb, 12:45PM, GMT). No change is expected in the rate, which is currently at 0.5%. However, BoE Governor Mark Carney might provide more clarity in the Bank's forward guidance policy.

At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading flat at 1.6309, with initial resistance seen at 1.6381, followed by 1.6422. Meanwhile, initial support is at 1.6291, followed by 1.6251.

The USD/JPY pair is making a slow but steady climb back to the 101.50 area after dropping to a low of 100.88 in yesterday's European session. The movement, however, will likely be affected by the market's anticipation of the US NFP data tomorrow. The pair is currently trading at 101.47, with initial resistance seen at 102.15, followed by 102.40. Meanwhile, initial support is at 101.21, followed by 100.95.

By FX Strategy Team, Published on 5th of February 2014
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