FX News – October 14: Risk Off Mood Drags Down Yen and Euro

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The AUD/USD pair fared well so far despite the soft trade balance data from China which was released in the weekend. From the previous 28.6 billion, it fell to a dismal 15.2 billion in September, while its exports fell from 7.2% to -0.3% on a YoY basis, and imports improved from 7.0% to 7.4%.

The aussie, however, got a boost from the positive Chinese CPI released earlier today. From 2.6%, it went up to 3.1% on a YoY basis, beating the 2.9% expectation. It also improved on a MoM basis, moving from 0.5% to 0.8%. PPI was also good, which improved from the previous -1.6% to -1.3%.

Relevant news tomorrow would be Australia's vehicle sales data, the minutes of the RBA meeting, and Chinese FDI data.

The AUD/USD pair reached a peak at around the 0.9470 zone in today's trading, and is currently trading at 0.9466. Initial resistance for the pair is at 0.9503, followed by 0.9527. Meanwhile, initial support is at 0.9451, followed by 0.9427.

The euro, on the other hand, hovered with the greenback at the 1.3560-1.3565 areas today before dropping sharply at the 1.3545 zone prior to the release of the EU's industrial production figures. Analysts expect it to improve from -1.5% to 0.8% in August on a MoM basis while it is seen to drop from -2.1% to -2.4% on a YoY basis.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.3547, with initial resistance seen at 1.3595, followed by 1.3629. Meanwhile, initial support is at 1.3530, followed by 1.3496.

As for the USD/JPY, the pair remained largely flat in today's trading, with the exception of a quick drop below the 98.24 area. It is currently trading at 98.30, with initial resistance seen at 98.95, followed by 99.19. Meanwhile, initial support is at 98.25, followed by 98.00.

By FX Strategy Team, Published on 14th of October 2013
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