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Fundamental articles

In this section we explain how economic fundamentals indicators, such as interest rates, influence FX rates.

Risk On, Risk Off! // 20 July 2011

It has been a tough couple of weeks for FX strategists out there. Just when it looked like the risk trade was back on- it was back off again! Read more >>

FX Special Ops // 08 July 2011

I’ve been wanting to write about the Chinese Renminbi for some time but each week I ultimately figure what’s the point? With its pegged structure it’s as good as untradeable! Read more >>

US Dollar – Yielding to its Bond Master // 01 July 2011

As the lyrics say in Yazz’s famous song “The Only Way is Up” many an economist would have you believe the same is true of US bond yields. Money printing leads to inflation which leads to higher interest rates they will tell you. Read more >>

EURO remains bearish despite Greek Bailout // 26 June 2011

The EURO, which has been batted against other major cross currencies, has been given a reprieve after the European Union announced it was going to bail out the Greek economy for the second time. The second bailout is again expected to top 100 Billion EUROs. Read more >>

China. The Dragon in the Dollar? // 23 June 2011

There have been lots of articles doing the rounds this week about Central Banks diversifying away for the US dollar. Read more >>

Can the US Dollar retain its Reserve Currency Status // 18 June 2011

As markets have gotten increasingly volatile in recent weeks and talk of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Mark II gets louder once again with a default by Greece being likened to Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008, I ponder whether the safe haven status which the USA enjoyed back in 2008 and 2009 would be repeated a second time around. Read more >>

George Soros’ Famous Trade // 10 June 2011

Last week I pondered Europe’s multitude of troubles and the effects it would have on the Euro currency and further whether this may offer the possibility of a profitable trade in shorting the Euro. Read more >>

Why wouldn’t you short the Euro? // 05 June 2011

As the famous German mathematician Carl Jacobi used to say “Invert, always invert”. And so this week I ponder the somewhat rhetorical question of what’s stopping me from an all out bet against the Euro? Read more >>

Will a Paradigm Shift in Natural Resources lead to a Paradigm Shift in the AUD/USD exchange rate? // 28 May 2011

By: Friday Fundamentalist My inspiration for this week’s article is thanks to Jeremy Gratham’s April 2011 Letter which carried the title “Time to wake up: Days of abundant resources and falling prices are over forever.” Read more >>

The forex trade that netted Buffett $100M // 20 May 2011

You won’t find out by reading Berkshire Hathaway’s 2010 Annual Report that Bueffet made $100M from FX trading, however, if you happened to be lucky enough to attend the recent Warren Buffett talk fest in Omaha Nebraska Read more >>

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