In this section we summaries via video and text the weekly FX chart patterns of interest. Weekly chart patterns are patterns formed by taking the weekly open, high, low and close values for each currency pair. This analysis provides a longer term outlook compared to the daily charts we look at.
Yesterday, we talked about some of the biggest events of the coming week. We also mentioned how important it is to keep track of announcements as these could affect the market in the coming days, or even weeks. Today, we talk about trends. As with trading stocks, currencies go through trends. In basic terms, a trend is the direction the foreign exchange market is taking. Successful traders learn to recognise these trends to enable them to make sound decisions, whether it is to buy, sell, or hold. Read more >>
EUR/USD formed a hammer by the end of the week, with many traders celebrating some of the successes coming out of the EU in reference to resolving the debt issues there. The pair does look to have a limited upside though. USD/CAD formed a shooting star for the week, but is sitting just above the parity level - an area that has been very supportive as of late. Again - limited moves more than likely, especially with oil getting so close to $100. AUD/USD looks very much like EUR/USD. Our prognosis? Choppy news driven trading for the week. Again. Play video >>
NZD/USD fell back below the 0.8000 level over the past week, but did print a hammer on the Friday close. USD/CAD busted back through the parity level, and looks like it wants to challenge the 1.02-1.03 levels. EUR/USD had a bearish week as well. Play video >>
USD/JPY has fallen yet again, and looks set to test the 75 handle before it is all said and done. USD/CAD has broken below parity during the week, and found a spot at 0.99 in which to rest. GBP/USD busted through the 1.60 level this past week, and looks set to try and regain 1.65 or so. Play video >>
EUR/USD had a bullish week as the trading world sold off the USD in favor of the common currency. The weekend has yet another EU summit, and it appears that traders are trying to get into the market ahead of that. In other words - gambling. The 1.40 area looks very resistive, so we are not convinced as of yet. The AUD/USD pair looks very similar to the EUR/USD and the "risk on" play seems to be in order. However, just like the EUR/USD, there is a massive resistance area just above in the form of the 1.03 to 1.05 area. The USD/CAD pair looks set to retest the parity level again, and the weekly candle looks very bearish. However, the oil markets look set to pullback, and this could make this pair bounce in this vicinity. Play video >>
The EUR/USD pair shot straight up during the previous week, as traders are hoping for a solution to the European debt solution. Any bad news will push it lower from a resistance area that we are currently testing. The NZD/USD looks very similar to the EUR/USD, and is overbought from the week. The pullback should be coming, and any bad news could trigger a landslide. We recently broke massive resistance, and we aren't too far above it to rule out a whipsaw at this point. USD/CAD looks very bearish, but the parity level could come into play very shortly. If it does - we could see some kind of buying at this point. The real question is what's real? The break out, or the break down? Play video >>
EUR/JPY continues to fall, but the weekly candle suggests that perhaps the sellers are running out of steam. However, it should be noted this could be a "sucker's rally" if the 105 level comes into play. AUD/NZD formed a hammer for the second week in a row at the 1.25 level - this shows that perhaps the Kiwi's massive up move could be coming to an end against many other currencies. GBP/CHF sees 1.45 coming into play, and a resistive move in the short-term is more than likely. However, with the SNB working against the Franc, this will more than likely be a chance to reload on longs as the pair pulls back. EUR/AUD continues to show that the 1.40 area is simply too much. We look for a return to the 1,000 pip or so consolidation area. Play video >>
EUR/USD finally broke the last of it's support during the week, and it now appears that this pair has entered a massive bear market. We no longer buy this pair, and will only sell rallies at this point. We look for 1.40 to be resistive in the near-term, and wait to see 1.35, and even 1.30 before it is all said and done. USD/CAD finds itself banging on the door of parity yet again. As we have said recently, the oil markets will dictate where this pair goes. If the CL contract in the oil markets closes above the $90 mark, there will be a lot of demand for the Canadian dollar. If it closes below $80 - this pair will move upward with force. The USD/SGD was knocking on the door of some very low levels recently, however - with the recent spat of major fear in the markets, the USD is being bought against everything, the Sing dollar is no different. Play video >>
The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the week, but still finds itself stuck within the 1.45 - 1.40 confines. This pair looks very range bound, and should continue to be until we get some kind of decisive break out of the range. If we break 1.45 on a daily close - it looks like a buy. If we get a daily close below 1.40 - it looks like a sell. Very simple at the moment really. EUR/CHF continues to whip around, and found itself in a 1,000 pip range for the week! The 1.20 level is obviously very resistive, and the 1.10 level is obviously supportive. Until we close outside of this range, we may find this pair very difficult to trade. It should be noted that when a trend changes, it gets quite messy. This is starting to (somewhat) look like that. USD/JPY finds itself being supported at the 76.50 area. The fact that the market is so bearish, and yet this level holds like a rock makes us wonder if the Bank of Japan isn't intervening in a clandestine way? The pair looks flat, and will be a scalper's market for the time being. Play video >>
The EUR/USD chart shows us that the 1.45 area is being tested yet again, this massive resistance area simply must give way for this pair to continue northward. We believe that the pair is trying to tell us this will happen. The AUD/USD pair looks very similar at the moment, but the 1.06 area needs to be broken. With a shooting star about to give way - this pair looks very bullish. However, 1.06 is still there.... The USD/CAD pair is still stuck, but we show you what levels need to be broken, and they aren't even Forex rates! Play video >>
The USD/JPY pair has formed a hammer on the weekly time frame as traders pushed the pair down through the 76 handle, only to back away in the end. With the Bank of Japan looking like they are ready to intervene, this is probably wise. If we can get above 77.50 - we would actually buy it. The USD/CHF pair managed to break the top of the previous week's hammer, but then just simply sat there. This shows 0.8000 to be massive resistance, and as a result could lead to more weakness when the eventual move does happen. The USD/CAD pair had a wild week, and simply seems to be a slave to the whims of the oil markets. We are watching parity and 0.98 for our next move. We think that if oil (CL) gives up the 80 USD mark to the downside, parity will be hopped over in this pair. Alternately, if the $90 mark gets broken to the upside in CL, this pair runs back towards the 0.9450 area. Play video >>
The EUR/USD could potentially be a flag. A bullish one at that! This videos shows how this is being formed, the levels that we need to watch, and the potential target, which sounds really high. But hey - I can remember when the EUR/USD being at 1.20 was out of the question! The USD/CHF pair looks very strong suddenly, and the weekly hammer shows we could continue to bounce. 0.80 is certainly a real possibility as the Swiss are starting to talk about pegging the Franc to the Euro. The SNB has a meeting this week, and it could move this pair wildly. The NZD/USD looks like it is ready to push even higher. The weekly hammer shows that the demand for the Kiwi is still out there, and that the 0.80 area is a massive support level that refuses to give way so far. Play video >>
The long-term charts are showing us several different things presently.... The EUR/USD almost looks like it is in a bullish flag pattern, even with all of the EU troubles in the debt markets. The potential S&P downgrade of the US might be a factor in this move, but we are still waiting to see a break of the 1.45 area to go long. If we get below 1.40 - we sell. In the meantime, we are looking for choppy short-term moves at best. The EUR/CHF continues to fall, and has broken the 1.10 area as investors keep sending their money into Switzerland, and leaving Europe. The pair shows that the EUR isn't necessarily strong, (despite the EUR/USD chart) and that perhaps it is the USD that is so weak. The USD/CAD pair skyrocketed during the week, and it appears that we will attempt a break out of the 0.98 level, but this pair is certainly in a downtrend. We see nothing to suggest that the trend will change anytime soon. Play video >>
The EUR/USD has formed what could be considered a bullish flag. However, there are many issues in Europe that are managing to stay out of the headlines, such as the rates in Italy and Portugal's bonds going back to the pre-deal levels in Europe. The EUR/CHF pair is absolutely horrible looking. The pair has found itself testing 1.13, which is 1,000 pips from where it started July. This pair continues to fall, and looks like it will reach 1.10, and then probably make a run towards parity. The USD/CHF pair has finally broken the 0.80 mark, and now looks to run to 0.75 as the debt talks in DC continue to hamper the USD......add to that this pair is in a massive downtrend, and we won't be buying it anytime soon! Play video >>
When we look at the weekly long-term charts, we see several different things at once. Looking at the USD/CHF, it is easy to see the world is running to the Franc again. EUR/USD looksl ike it is setting up for several different moves at once, and therefore is difficult to trade. EUR/CHF looks like it is going to keep plunging, and the bottom is nowhere in sight. EUR/GBP looks like a lot of trouble waiting to happen. Play video >>
The EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, and USD/CAD long-term (weekly) charts are featured in this video for the upcoming 11 July session Play video >>
Looking at the weekly charts (long-term charts) for 4 June 2011, we see the EUR/USD showing us that it wants to continue it's massive move up, as well as the EUR/CHF finally showing a possible bottom long-term on the monthly chart. Looking at the AUD/USD, there is no doubt that one currency is loved over another. Play video >>
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