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The AUD/USD had a weak day on Thursday as traders are starting to sell the "risk on" trade in reaction to the various debt issues that continue to haunt the markets. The Aussie is most certainly a strong currency, so we are looking at this as an opportunity to perhaps buy the Aussie at a discount as the 1.09 and certainly the 1.08 levels should be supportive. The AUD/SGD pair has recently broken out of a downward channel, and did so in dramatic fashion as the channel gave way to a massive move a few days ago. As the AUD/USD falls, so should the AUD/SGD. This is because the SGD has historically been pegged to the USD. If it does, look for the previous downtrend line in the channel to perhaps act as support. Play video >>
The EUR/NOK pair has been consolidating in a wide range for about 1 year now, and as we approach this bottom, one cannot help but notice the fact that the Thursday candle was indeed a hammer. This is a very bullish sign, and as such - lends itself to be a decent buy signal. This isn't a long-term trade, rahter a way to perhaps pocket a few hundred pips before it is all said and done. The EUR/GBP is the epitome of a choppy pair. The pair does look vulnerable, but the Pound isn't exactly a darling either. Because of this, the pair looks bias to the downside, but we will more than likely see a lot of chopping in the process. Play video >>
The USD/CHF pair didn't move much on Wednesday, but the fact that the USD rose against most other currencies, and this pair just sat at the massive 0.80 psychological level leads us to believe that the market is very comfortable at this low level, which of course means that below it isn't a big deal either. The USD/CAD pair rose on Wednesday as the oil markets fell as well. The CAD seems to be held hostage by the CL and COIL contracts lately, and as such - we think that these pullbacks in oil are punishing the Loonie. The pair bounced form the 0.9450 support level, and we think that there will be selling opportunities at higher levels. The trend is down, and as such....we only sell. We are simply waiting for that rally to sell. We would also be interested in selling if we can get below 0.94 or so. Play video >>
The AUD/NZD pair rose on Wednesday, as traders are trying to sell off all risk assets as the fears of debt issues continue out of DC. This selling doesn't have much to do with either of the Antipodean economies, but it does move the pairs. We feel that a bounce to 1.28 could be coming, but that could be a place we can sell this pair as it should be resistance. The AUD/JPY pair rose as well, but appears that it is approaching the top of the recent downtrend channel, and as such - we are getting ready to sell, but at about 100-150 pips above current levels. Play video >>
The AUD/USD pair rocketed as the President of the United States gave a less than optimistic speech late Monday night in the US. The pair looks like it is reacting to three things: Australian strength in general, the debt crisis drama in DC, and the strengthening of the gold markets. We like this pair a lot currently, but would have to wait for a pullback before we bought again. As long as we are above 1.08, we are very bullish. The AUD/CHF pair is a slightly different story. It looks ready to roll over on the 4 hour charts, which would make sense as the world is looking for safe haven assets. While the Australian Dollar is considered to be a strong currency - none hold a candle to the Franc. Play video >>
The USD/CHF is presently testing the 0.80 level, a level that very few would have seriously considered just one year ago. The truth is that the USD is getting punished for the behavior of the President and Congress in DC, and will continue to be until some kind of deal can be reached. The level looks like it could be massive support, but don't we remember when 0.90 seemed completely unimaginable? How about parity? We like selling rallies and new lows. Same formula as before - but hey....it keeps working! The EUR/USD has risen above 1.45, which is astonishing if you think about how recent the issues in Greece were front and center. Because of this, we believe the flight from the USD will continue. The pair seems to be benefiting from Dollar weakness.....not necessarily because it is suddenly is safe to loan Europeans money. This pair should be kind of bullish, but choppy for the foreseeable future. Play video >>
The GBP/NZD is decidely bearish, but at the end of the Monday session we are seeing a hammer form on the daily chart at the 1.88 level. This pair could bounce, and sellers would welcome that as there are plenty of resistance area above that could provide nice selling spots. The 1.90 and 1.95 levels are particularly interesting to us if we get there. A break below the 1.88 on a sustained (read daily) basis, we would be interested in selling there as well. The GBP/CAD pair seems stuck between the 1.55 and 1.52 areas. The consolidation pattern is forming a rectangle that is 300 pips tall, and as such, if we get the break down from that box, we would aim for a 300 pip move. The oil markets are presently holding the Canadian Dollar at bay, and if the Light Sweet Crude (CL) contract can finally break $100, the CAD should be bought up around the FX markets. This would puch this pair lower as well. If you are looking for a trade signal, we like selling at those areas mentinoed above, and if oil gets above the $100 mark as we are watching oil markets as well. Play video >>
The NZD/USD is comfortably above the 0.85 level, but does look like it wants to roll over slighty. The pair is a barometer of economic risk, as the Kiwi is considered a "risk on" currency, and this might be the problem at the moment. The 139 pips or so that it would take to pullback to 0.85 isn't a major concern, and could set up for a nice buying set up. The NZD/JPY pair looks similar in the sense that the pair is a "risk on" pair, and it looks like it wants to fall a bit. We have divergence on the MACD indicator, and as such - we are expecting a bit of a fall. Don't misunderstand - we are not expecting a meltdown, just a pullback to either the 66 or 65 area. We would buy at those levels witha supportive candle. Play video >>
The USD/CAD pair pierced the 0.9450 level, but on Friday bounced hard. It should be noted however, that the pair also gave a lot of ground up later in the day. The reaction was to weak inflation numbers out of Canada which effected the Loonie, that was tempered by extremely strong retail numbers. We think this pair will be moved by oil, and a sustained break above $100 would do that. The USD/CHF pair attempted to rally above the 0.83 level, but fell short again, and formed a shooting star on Friday, showing how weak this pair really is. With the debt ceiling talks stalling in America, this pair looks set to fall even further. Play video >>
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