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The EUR/USD is a complete mess. Although it looks like a bullish flag is being formed, there is simply too much headline risks out there for both currencies. The "flag" could also be a potential downward channel, and could be bearish. The fact is there are two trend lines that we are watching in order to get a signal. The EUR/CHF is much easier to gauge, and looks very bearish. The trend is down, and that should be obvious. The 1.18 area was retested, and the daily candle on Friday turned out to be a shooting star - a bearish sign. The pair looks weak, and all XXX/CHF pairs seem to agree. The USD/CAD pair looks weak - but we also pierced the 0.9450 support level, which of course is a sign of USD weakness. The bounce however, shows that this level is going to be hard to break down. We like selling rallies. Play video >>
The USD/CAD pair managed to break below the all-important 0.9450 level on Thursday, but bounced later in the day as support held. This sets up the market for a clear signal: If we break the bottom of Thursday's doji, we can continue to sell this pair. If we break the highs on Thursday, this just signals that we will get a better price from which to sell. We don't buy this pair as it is so bearish. The USD/CHF is a completely different story as it looks very weak, and has shown no qualms about making even lower lows in the past. This pair is a freight train southbound, and as such - we sell rallies and new lows. The 0.80 level is below, and it could present a bounce, but that should only be another chance to sell at higher prices. Play video >>
The GBP/CHF pair looks very odd as it is the "odd man out" on the rally. This is particularly important as the markets around the world rallied - something that normally sends this pair much higher. Because of this, we are a bit cautious with all things risk related. The reaction in the GBP in general could be because the UK banks may be saved some pain via the rumored agreement on European contagion remedies in Brussels. One sticking point: The details haven't been released yet, and the market may be ahead of itself. The GBP/CHF is certainly in a downtrend, and a move back down isn't a big stretch of the imagination. It is with this backdrop that we are suspicious of the GBP/USD move upward on Thursday. Play video >>
The double bottom pattern is a very strong bullish signal as it shows that the market’s sellers have pushed prices to low levels twice, yet failed to continue the rout of the currency pair. The psychological aspect of the pattern is that sellers will find that they simply do not have the power to continue the selling, and that they suddenly find themselves losing money. Play video >>
USD/CHF shows signs of going lower, but there is that pesky 0.82 level that is showing that it might cause a bounce around the rectangle pattern area. The EUR/CHF shows signs of strength, but only as much as it takes to psuh it up towards our next level to sell from. Play video >>
USD/JPY looks weak, but you can have it! We see that we are approaching areas that triggered intervention previously. USD/CAD looks weak as well, but the 0.9450 area looks like it is going to produce a bounce, which we are not willing to buy, but are willing to sell at higher levels. Play video >>
The double top pattern is a very strong bearish signal that shows that the market’s buyers have pushed prices to new highs twice, yet failed to continue the uptrend. The psychology of the pattern is that buyers will find that they simply do not have the strength to continue the uptrend, and that they suddenly find themselves losing money. Play video >>
EUR/CHF surged as traders bought risk on Tuesday. However, the 1.18 area is just above - and this would be a perfect spot to short if we get bearish action. EUR/JPY is currently sitting still. We are looking at a specific level to short this pair Play video >>
GBP/CHF skyrocketed upward during the session on Tuesday, and is approaching areas that make a short position look interesting.... GBP/USD continues to look weak, but isn't a sell.....yet. Play video >>
NZD/USD has fallen the last couple of days in a row, but each time - the buyers step into the market to keep pushing this pair much higher. Once we break 0.85 - we could move onto be things. NZD/CHF has been rangebound in the rectangle pattern area. Why? They are two of the strongest currencies on earth right now! Play video >>
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